ZCCM Investments Holdings » file de discussion

On apprend en ce début d'année que 3 sociétés minières auraient l'intention de demander leur cotation en bourse au LUSE en Zambie.

Aucun nom n'est cité sauf KCM dont on rappelle que la cotation a été reportée avec la crise.

Coter à Lusaka n'est pas le moyen le plus efficace pour obtenir des capitaux vu l'étroitesse de cette bourse et on doit plus y voir un affichage politique pour la nouvelle équipe au pouvoir.

Par contre nous savons tous que l'IPO sur KCM consistera en une double cotation à Londres puis à Lusaka.

On peut donc s'interroger si d'autres sociétés minières de Zambie n'ont pas l'intention de coter aussi leurs actifs à Londres dans un proche avenir ...

On pense bien sur à KCM mais aussi à Mopani détenu par Glencore ou même Kansanshi détenu par First Quantum.

Lorsqu'on se souvient que la seule annonce d'une cotation de KCM à Londres fin 2010 avait propulsé ZCCM à 4 EUR on comprendra qu'il s'agit d'une annonce majeure à suivre de tres pres désormais.

A suivre .... 

------------------------------------------

ZAMBIA is largely a mining economy which has been dependent on copper mining since independence and yet there are only two listed mining companies on the Lusaka Stock Exchange (LuSE).

Under the MMD government, the Ministry of Finance indicated that it would issue measures to ensure that mining companies were compelled to list some of their shares but this never materialised.
So far, only First Quantum Minerals has listed its shares on the LuSE and we hope there could be more of such listing to enable Zambians own some shares in the mining companies.

It makes sad reading that Africa’s largest copper producer, Zambia only has two listed mining companies when these are the companies that should have been driving the growth of the local capital market.

This is why we are encouraged to hear that three mining firms have expressed interest to list on the LuSE to raise long-term capital to finance huge projects.

According to LuSE general manager Beatrice Nkanza, the exchange has received numerous inquiries from some mining firms, with three coming forwards to inquire on listing regulations and requirements, corporate governance and disclosures.

Receiving inquiries is a positive sign that mining firms could list on the stock exchange in future and we hope LuSE can do more to encourage mining firms to list.

The chamber of mines could do well to encourage their members to consider listing on the local stock market, to not just raise finance for some of their projects, but to increase good corporate governance and disclosure of financial statements.

This will enable the mining companies to be more transparent so that suspicions about evading taxes are cleared.

In fact, this will also improve the perception of the mining companies by the public because the disclosure requirement by the LuSE will ensure transparency.

With the European debt crisis wreaking havoc in European economies, raising finance in these traditional markets where Zambian-based mining firms have been sourcing funding will prove to be extremely difficult.

Last year, Konkola Copper Mines wanted to list shares on the London Stock Exchange but these plans have since been postponed because of the European debt crisis.

We expect upcoming policy decisions in the US and Europe to hold the key to the global growth outlook.

But with a recession in Europe, anaemic growth in the US and a further dimming of emerging market economies, we see global growth falling below its long-term average. 

Therefore, the alternative for these mining companies is to use the local capital market.

The LuSE could do well to engage the Ministry of Finance so that they could come up with some incentives that will encourage mining companies to consider issuing Initial Public Offers to encourage local participation in these firms.

Some of these mining firms have dual listings on either the London Stock Exchange or Toronto Exchange and therefore issuing a third listing will just help them raise finance from the local capital market.

If First Quantum can successfully issue a listing on the local market, why do others have doubts about the ability of the local market to absorb their shares?

Therefore, we challenge these mining firms to consider listing their stocks on LuSE than to wait for Government to compel them to list through the use of Statutory Instruments.

En attendant les résultats semestriels qui devraient tomber désormais à tout moment, voici une autre nouvelle attendue depuis l'acquisition de Cairn India par Vedanta :

Moody's annonce la dégradation d'une partie de la note obligataire de Vedanta avec un biais négatif.

Le constat de Moody's est clair :

- La dette de Vedanta dépasse désormais 9 milliards de $ et sa capacité à remonter des dividendes de ses filiales n'est pas prouvé.

- Vedanta doit faire remonter du cash vers la maison mere et réaliser des plus-values sur ses participations.

Le lancement des IPO sur KCM et Sterlite maintenant que le marché boursier semble stabilisé me semble donc inévitable.

Patience ....

--------------------------------------

Résumé des points essentiels :

" debt at the Parent company level is now in excess of USD9 billion on a pro forma basis. This compares with a reported Parent equity of USD1 billion at FYE March 2011. "

" the lack of parent company profits and to move cash to the Parent level but the ability to declare regular dividends from the operations, chiefly in India, and to upstream these via the intermediate holding companies, is not well established "

The outlook could be stabilized if Vedanta .... cash flow from dividends and equity realizations materialize in a regular fashion.

--------------------------------------

Le communiqué intégral :

Rating Action: Moody's lowers Vedanta's bond rating but affirms corporate family rating

Global Credit Research - 12 Jan 2012

Moody's has today affirmed Vedanta Resources Plc's ("Vedanta") Corporate Family Rating of Ba1 but has lowered the Senior Unsecured Bond Rating to Ba3 from Ba2. The outlook on both ratings is maintained at negative.


RATINGS RATIONALE


This rating action follows the completion of the acquisition of a controlling stake in Cairn India Ltd. ("CIL"), on 8th December. First announced in August 2010, Vedanta has successfully negotiated the course of approvals, objections and amended production contract arrangements and now holds 38.5% of CIL directly, with a further 20% of CIL held by Sesa Goa Ltd., Vedanta's 55.1%-owned subsidiary.


While the acquisition of CIL should considerably enhance the Group's EBITDA, Moody's concern is with the sharply higher debt burden placed on the Parent company. In order to lift its stake from 28.5% to 58.5%, Vedanta drew USD2.78 billion from its pre-arranged acquisition facilities.

Coupled with the issue of USD1.65 billion of bonds in June 2011, debt at the Parent company level is now in excess of USD9 billion on a pro forma basis. This compares with a reported Parent equity of USD1 billion at FYE March 2011.


"In the normal course of events we are concerned about subordination risk for unsecured bondholders in a holdco due to the presence of priority debt in operating subsidiaries, but in Vedanta's case our key concern is the sustainability of bank-like balance sheet gearing at the Parent company," says Alan Greene, a Moody's Vice President -- Senior Credit Officer.


"While some of the Parent debt is backed by intercompany loans, the bulk of debt has been applied towards acquisitions. Unless refinanced with more debt, acquisition debt servicing relies on equity returns.

Sporadic efforts have been made to offset the lack of parent company profits and to move cash to the Parent level but the ability to declare regular dividends from the operations, chiefly in India, and to upstream these via the intermediate holding companies, is not well established", adds Greene, also Moody's lead analyst for Vedanta.


"The overall negative outlook is maintained given our continuing and various concerns about the Group. The likely timeframe of the negative outlook is an opportunity for Vedanta to tackle some of these areas -- namely to improve the group structure, to work through some regulatory challenges in India and of course to bed-in the large Cairn acquisition", continues Greene.


The negative outlook also reflects the slower rate of growth being seen in India. Already the impact of the depreciating rupee has been seen with earnings attributable to equity holders of Vedanta falling to USD28 million in the six months to September 2011, largely as a result of net mark to market losses on financing arrangements at the Indian subsidiaries.

Excluding these and other special items, underlying attributable profit was USD186 million for 1H FY12. However, a depreciating rupee generally supports profitability as revenue is USD-linked while the bulk of costs are in rupees.


The outlook could be stabilized if Vedanta 1) successfully integrates CIL, with evidence of a stable and sustainable production and business profile; 2) cash flow from dividends and equity realizations materialize in a regular fashion.


There is limited upward pressure on the rating over the near to medium term. Positive momentum could build if the company demonstrates the ability to streamline its complex corporate structure, the planned expansion projects start generating expected returns and there is evidence of a stable and sustainable business profile for the company.

The group would also have to demonstrate the following financial metrics on a sustainable basis: CFO (less dividends)/Adjusted debt over 25% - 30%, Adjusted Debt/ EBITDA below 2.5x -3.0x, and EBIT interest coverage over 5.0x -- 6.5x.


Conversely, the ratings could come under downward pressure if the company faces further challenges in the oil and gas operations under CIL;

2) the parent remains thinly capitalized with less than expected dividends upstreamed from the core operating subsidiaries;

3) undertakes further acquisitions, investments or shareholder remuneration policies that include incremental debt; or

4) it fails to satisfactorily execute its expansion projects.

Credit metrics that Moody's would consider for a ratings downgrade include CFO (less dividends)/Adjusted Debt below 15%, Adjusted Debt to EBITDA exceeding 3.5-4.0x, or EBIT interest coverage declining to 3.5x or less on a sustained basis.


The principal methodology used in rating Vedanta was the Global Mining Industry Methodology published in May 2009. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.


Headquartered in London, UK, Vedanta Resources plc is a metals and mining company focusing on integrated zinc, aluminum, copper, iron ore mining and commercial power generation. Its operations are predominantly located in India.

It is listed on the London Stock Exchange and is 62.19% owned by Volcan Investments Ltd.

Quelques news au sujet de cet interminable dossier ZCCM :

-----------------------------------------------

1 : l' IPO sur KCM "n'est pas une priorité" selon VEDANTA mais pourrait intervenir si le marché le permet.

2 : toujours pas de semestriels : Selon "aboutzccm" le décés d'un des administrateurs et les nouvelles nominations au board de ZCCM expliquent le retard. Tout serait réglé et la publication "imminente"

3 : pas encore d'IPO sur KCM mais deux autres sur Luanshya et Chambishi à Hong-Kong. Rien que ces deux participations valent plus que la totalité de la capitalisation boursière de ZCCM !

Patience donc ...

------------------------------------------------

1 :

Hello P...

Currently the IPO of KCM and SEL is not a priority - management will evaluate market situations and whether the IPOs unlock value for shareholders, and will communicate as and when appropriate.

Regards,
Vedanta Investor Relations

------------------------------------------------

2 :

Cvarvois (aboutzccm)

Les comptes semestriels sont prêts depuis quelques temps déjà. Comme la refonte du Board qui aurait vraisemblablement déjà du être communiquée il y a quelques jours si O. Munyenyembe, seul réchappé du remaniement gouvernemental et représentant des mineurs, n'était pas tragiquement décédé en début de semaine. Il n'y a pas lieu d'extrapoler davantage.

Sata mourns Munyenyembe

By Times Reporter

PRESIDENT  Michael Sata has described the late Mineworkers Union of  Zambia (MUZ) president, Oswell  Munyenyembe  as a rare breed  and highly valuable trade unionist.   
In his message of condolences on the death of Mr Munyenyembe, Mr Sata said he was deeply saddened  by  the death of the MUZ president.   
Mr Munyenyembe, 59, died in a car crash on the Kitwe-Ndola dual carriageway on Tuesday afternoon. He is survived by five children and a wife, Charity.
“Oswell was someone with exemplary trade union skills and it was always a joy to see him doing what he knew best - presiding over negotiations and always accomplishing what his members expected of him.   

“Therefore, I have no doubt in my mind that the effect of this sudden loss is already being felt by both the employees and the management in our robust mining sector. His bravery, courage and maturity even in crucial moments is simply peerless or first-class,”  President Sata said.

This is contained in a statement released in Lusaka yesterday by President Sata’s Special Assistant for Press and Public Relations George Chellah.

Press Association of Zambia (PAZA) has also described Mr Munyenyembe as a champion of  workers’ rights who was also instrumental in advocating freedom of the Press.
PAZA President Andrew Sakala said Mr Munyenyembe’s death was a great loss to the media fraternity and the labour movement as he had contributed to the championing of media rights adding that he has left an indelible gap that would be hard to fill.

“For us as PAZA, we are greatly saddened by the demise of Mr Munyenyembe as he was an ally in the fight for Press freedom, he supported our cause in his public and private capacities,” Mr Sakala said.

Zambia Union of Nurses Organisation (ZUNO) president  Thom Yung’ana said the death of Mr Munyenyembe was a big loss to the trade union movement because of his vigilance and commitment to workers’ rights.

Mr Yung’ana, who was recently on the same table with the MUZ chief during the negotiations for  improved conditions of service for workers at Mopani Copper Mines in Kitwe, said Mr Munyenyembe’s negotiating skills would greatly be missed.

Zambia Union of Journalists (ZUJ) President  Anthony Mulowa said Zambia had once again been robbed of a selfless trade unionist with vast experience.
Mr Mulowa said ZUJ was greatly saddened by Mr Munyenyembe’s untimely death saying his services would not only be missed by players in the mining sector but the entire labour fraternity.

Several Mufulira residents and others from different towns yesterday gathered at 22 Funda Avenue to mourn Mr Munyenyembe.
Family spokesperson Margaret Mwale said Mr Munyenyembe was born in 1954 in Muyombe area in Muchinga Province.
Ms Mwale said that when Mr Munyenyembe completed his secondary school education, he joined the then Zambia Consolidated Copper Mines (ZCCM) where he later rose to be a draftsman.

She said that when the mines were privatised in the 1990s Mopani Copper Mines picked him to continue working and he continued with trade unionism.
Burial arrangements were being worked out.


------------------------------------------------

Selene75 ( Sélène )

IPO Luanshya et Chambishi (13/02/2012)

CNMM (China Nonferrous Metal Mining) prévoit de lever environ 1 milliard $ en introduisant en bourse, à Hong Kong, ses sociétés Zambiennes qui sont :
Chambishi copper mine, Luanshya copper mine, et deux fonderies.

Nous savons que ZCCM détient :

LCM Luanshya Copper Mines Plc 20.0% et Chambishi Metals Plc 10.0%

Une IPO verra l'introduction de 25 à 40% des titres dans le public : 25% parce que c'est un minimum requis, et 40% parce que c'est un maximum si CNMM veut rester majoritaire.

En retenant une introduction médiane de 33%, soit un tiers des titres, nous apprenons que 1/3 des titres ont une valorisation d'environ 1 milliard US$.

Et ZCCM détient environ 1/6 des titres de ces deux compagnies, soit 500 millions $ (ordre de grandeur).

On peut donc considérer que la valeur des titres Luanshya et Chambishi détenus par ZCCM vaudrait au moins 300 millions US$, soit autant que la valorisation boursière actuelle de ZCCM...

La valorisation boursière actuelle de ZCCM correspond donc à la valorisation de deux de ses plus petites mines, en niant le cash de la compagnie et ses participations dans les mines géantes de KCM et Kansanshi...

---------------------------------